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🚀SpaceXHigh significancePRM-00002
Humans on Mars
In Progress
Original Promise
“I'd like to establish a self-sustaining colony on Mars within 10-20 years.”
Promised: April 22, 2011Original deadline: December 31, 2025Current deadline: December 31, 2030
Promise Timeline
Total delay: +5yPromised
Apr 22, 2011
Revision 1
Sep 27, 2016
Revision 2
Dec 1, 2020
+1y
Revision 3
Mar 14, 2024
+5y
✕
Revised deadline
Dec 2024
✕
Original deadline
Dec 31, 2025
✕
Revised deadline
Dec 2026
✕
Revised deadline
Dec 2030
Revision History (3)
Revision 1Sep 27, 2016Interview
1y total delay“If things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people in 2024.”
Moved deadline earlier — rare. IAC conference presentation.
Revision 2Dec 1, 2020Interview
+1y total delay“I'm fairly confident we can land humans on Mars by 2026.”
2024 target clearly unreachable, pushed to 2026
Revision 3Mar 14, 2024Interview
+5y total delay“I think we'll have uncrewed Starship landing on Mars in 2028, crewed mission by 2030.”
Significant pushback. Starship hasn't completed full orbital test. Mars window reality setting in.
Related Claims
MarsStarshipcolonization