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?Unverifiable🚀SpaceXCLM-00003
Starship will reach Mars orbit by end of 2028. I'm highly confident this time.
X PostFebruary 12, 2026 at 9:45 AMOriginal source
890,000 likes120,000 reposts67,000,000 views

Verdict

Future prediction that cannot be fact-checked yet. However, Musk has made similar Mars timeline claims since 2011, none of which have materialized.

Full Analysis

This claim is a forward-looking prediction and cannot be verified at this time. However, context is important: Musk has publicly stated Mars mission timelines at least 8 times since 2011, with target dates of 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026, and now 2028. None have materialized. SpaceX has not yet completed an orbital Starship flight with successful recovery of both stages.

Evidence (1)

ContextArs TechnicaSep 15, 2025

A Complete History of Elon Musk's Mars Timeline Promises

Since 2011, Musk has publicly stated at least 8 different target dates for Mars missions. The goal has consistently moved 2-3 years into the future.

Metadata

Confidence

85%

First checked

Feb 12, 2026

Last updated

Feb 12, 2026

Space & Mars