ELONALYSIS
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TeslaHigh significancePRM-00001

Full Self-Driving

In Progress

Original Promise

I think we will be 'feature-complete' on full self-driving this year.
Promised: February 19, 2019Original deadline: December 31, 2019Current deadline: June 30, 2026
Earnings CallTesla Q4 2018 Earnings CallSource

Promise Timeline

Total delay: +6y 6mo

Promised

Feb 19, 2019

Revision 1

Apr 22, 2019

+1y

Original deadline

Dec 31, 2019

Revision 2

Dec 2, 2020

+2y

Revised deadline

Dec 2020

Revised deadline

Dec 2021

Revision 3

Jan 26, 2022

+3y

Revised deadline

Dec 2022

Revision 4

Apr 19, 2023

+5y

Revision 5

Oct 10, 2024

+6y 6mo

Revised deadline

Dec 2024

Revised deadline

Jun 2026

Revision History (5)

Revision 1Apr 22, 2019Interview
+1y total delay
A year from now, we'll have over a million cars with full self-driving, feature complete.
New deadline: Dec 2020+366d from previousTesla Autonomy Day

Tesla Autonomy Day investor presentation

Revision 2Dec 2, 2020Interview
+2y total delay
I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have full autonomy — Level 5 — next year.
New deadline: Dec 2021+365d from previousAxel Springer Award Interview

2020 target clearly missed, pushed again during award interview

Revision 3Jan 26, 2022Earnings Call
+3y total delay
I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than a human this year.
New deadline: Dec 2022+365d from previousTesla Q4 2021 Earnings Call

Annual earnings call, another year, another deadline

Revision 4Apr 19, 2023Earnings Call
+5y total delay
I think there is a good chance we get to full self-driving by the end of this year... or next year at the latest.
New deadline: Dec 2024+731d from previousTesla Q1 2023 Earnings Call

Hedged with 'or next year', effectively extending two years

Revision 5Oct 10, 2024X Post
+6y 6mo total delay
Tesla Robotaxi will be operational in California and Texas by June 2025. No, I mean June 2026.
New deadline: Jun 2026+547d from previousWe, Robot Event

We, Robot event; initially said 2025, corrected himself to 2026 during the same presentation

Related Claims

autonomyFSDrobotaxiLevel 5